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nfl_td_luck

Pro tier

Touchdown luck

PREFERRED for touchdown luck / TD regression questions. Returns actual vs expected receiving and rushing touchdowns per player-season. Negative total_td_luck_score = scored fewer TDs than expected (positive-regression / 'unlucky' bounce-back candidate); positive = over-performed (sell-high). Use for 'who was unlucky on TDs in 2024' or 'is player X due for TD regression'. Default sort is most unlucky first; use sort=lucky or sort=extremes for the sell-high tail or both tails at once.

Minimum tier: Pro
Data coverage: 2013 onwards seasons

Parameters

Name	Type	Required	Description
`player`	string	Optional	Player name — full ('Justin Jefferson') or short ('J.Jefferson') both accepted.
`position`	string	Optional	Position filter (e.g. WR, RB, TE).
`team`	string	Optional	Team abbreviation (e.g. KC).
`season`	integer	Optional	Exact season year.
`limit`	integer	Optional	Max rows (default 50, max 500).
`sort`	string	Optional	Which tail to return: 'unlucky' (default, buy-low), 'lucky' (sell-high), or 'extremes' (largest luck either direction, so both regression tails appear in one call).Options: unlucky, lucky, extremes

Example request

A Model Context Protocol tools/call over Streamable HTTP. Replace YOUR_API_KEY with a key from your dashboard.

curl -X POST https://mcp.nflmcp.com/mcp \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer YOUR_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -H "Accept: application/json, text/event-stream" \
  -d '{
  "jsonrpc": "2.0",
  "id": 1,
  "method": "tools/call",
  "params": {
    "name": "nfl_td_luck",
    "arguments": {
      "position": "WR",
      "season": 2024,
      "limit": 10
    }
  }
}'

Example response

Excerpt · lists trimmed

{
  "td_luck": [
    {
      "player_id": "00-0039919",
      "full_name": "Rome Odunze",
      "position": "WR",
      "team": "CHI",
      "season": 2024,
      "rec_td": 3,
      "rec_td_exp": 7.07,
      "rec_td_luck": -4.07,
      "rush_td": 0,
      "rush_td_exp": 0.02,
      "rush_td_luck": -0.02,
      "total_td_luck_score": -4.09
    },
    {
      "player_id": "00-0039890",
      "full_name": "Adonai Mitchell",
      "position": "WR",
      "team": "IND",
      "season": 2024,
      "rec_td": 0,
      "rec_td_exp": 3.56,
      "rec_td_luck": -3.56,
      "rush_td": 0,
      "rush_td_exp": 0.23,
      "rush_td_luck": -0.23,
      "total_td_luck_score": -3.79
    },
    {
      "player_id": "00-0035216",
      "full_name": "Diontae Johnson",
      "position": "WR",
      "team": "CAR",
      "season": 2024,
      "rec_td": 3,
      "rec_td_exp": 5.58,
      "rec_td_luck": -2.58,
      "rush_td": 0,
      "rush_td_exp": 0.02,
      "rush_td_luck": -0.02,
      "total_td_luck_score": -2.6
    }
  ],
  "count": 10
}

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